Related Links April 2008 Water Supply Outlook Letter from the Governor (PDF file, 1.22 MB) July 2007 Water Supply Outlook MWD Water Surplus and Drought Management Plan Report (January 7, 2008) (Powerpoint file, 411 K) WATER CONDITIONS: Tight Supply from Colorado River Could Hike Water Rates Memorandum: Colorado River Board of California (Word document, 39K)

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2008

The following is a summary of water supply conditions for the State of California and the Metropolitan service area.

Precipitation Conditions as of April 6, 2008

Location	Precipitation Amount	% of Normal
State Water Project Watersheds*	33.1"	78%
Eastern Sierra Snowpack**	39"	89%
Colorado River Basin Snowpack	20.4"	118%
Los Angeles	12.9"	95%
San Diego	7.0"	73%

Key Storage Conditions as of March 30, 2008

Summary of Hydrologic Conditions in California

With a precipitation total of 1.6 inches (23% of average), March 2008, was the sixth driest March on record for as measured by DWR's Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation Index.  Statewide, March precipitation was about 20% of average. As a result, statewide hydrologic conditions for Water Year 2008 as of April 1 were as follows: precipitation, 90% of average to date; runoff, 55% of average to date; and reservoir storage, 85% of average for the date. Snowpack water content was about 100% of average to date (and about 100% of the April 1 average, the normal date of maximum accumulation). In comparison, the snowpack on April 1 last year stood at about 40%. The Water Year 2008, Northern Sierra 8-Station Index, October through March total of 33.0 inches is the 32nd driest year out of 89 years of record.

Statewide, the forecast runoff for the water supply basins is down about 3% from the April 1 forecast. January and early February brought significant amounts of precipitation to California, including heavy snowfall in the mountains. The large water supply reservoirs received some inflow from these storms; however, the amounts were muted because much of the precipitation fell as snow. Because precipitation was significantly below average last year, dry hydrologic conditions still prevail. Storage in most of the major water supply reservoirs is still well below average.

The latest National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) long-range weather outlook for April 2008, issued March 31, 2008, is forecasting average precipitation for Northern and Central California. Below average precipitation is forecasted for Southeastern California.

Metropolitan Water Surplus and Drought Management (WSDM) Plan Update

Current 2008 projections continue to show that Metropolitan could have a need for approximately 700 TAF of supplies from WSDM Actions to meet firm, non-interruptible demands. This is based on the following assumptions:

• Range of Demands and Obligations - 1.9 to 2.3 MAF,
• Current Trend Demands and Obligations are 2.18 MAF
• The range of projected actual water sales is 1.9 to 2.2 MAF
  
  
• Colorado River Aqueduct Core Supplies - ≈ 800 TAF
• Basic Apportionment (550,000 AF)
• IID conservation program (85,000 AF)
• IID/SDCWA Transfer (50,000 AF)
• PVID Land Management Program (82,000 AF)
• Additional PVID Fallowing (20,000 AF)
  
  
• State Water Project Supplies - ≈ 750 TAF
• The SWP allocation remains at 35%, with some possibility that it could go as high as 40-45%
  
  
• Replenishment Deliveries Cuts of 100%
• IAWP delivery Cuts of 30%

At the beginning of CY 2008, Metropolitan had approximately 1.72 MAF of storage in its WSDM resource portfolio to manage base supplies and demands. Currently, the WSDM supplies and management actions available for CY 2008 are approximately 820 TAF.  Based on current trend demands, there is a need for approximately 700 TAF to meet base demands.  These demands are projected to be met through:

• Spot Market Water Transfers
  • In April, the Metropolitan Board approved the purchase of up to 54,000 acre-feet of north of Delta agricultural supplies – after accounting for Delta conveyance losses of 20 percent – at approximately $250/acre-foot, not including energy costs to deliver the water to Metropolitan’s service area
    
    
• Maximizing Groundwater Production
• Local Groundwater production is expected to be roughly 67 TAF in 2008
  
  
• Withdrawals from Surface Storage and Dry-Year Groundwater Programs
• Withdrawals from the Central Valley (Semitropic, Arvin-Edison and Kern Delta) and southern California (Mojave and San Bernardino) groundwater storage programs were approximately 110 TAF in the first 3 months of 2008
• Additionally, 25 TAF from the 1992 Central Arizona groundwater storage program
• Metropolitan has access to over 400 TAF of surface storage from DVL, Castaic Lake and Lake Perris in CY 2008
  
  
• Extraordinary Conservation Measures
  • Staff will be coming forward with proposed extraordinary conservation measures at Metropolitan’s May Board meeting.
  
  

Water Supply Outlook for March 2008

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