Related Links April 2008 Water Supply Outlook Letter from the Governor (PDF file, 1.22 MB) July 2007 Water Supply Outlook MWD Water Surplus and Drought Management Plan Report (January 7, 2008) (Powerpoint file, 411 K) WATER CONDITIONS: Tight Supply from Colorado River Could Hike Water Rates Memorandum: Colorado River Board of California (Word document, 39K)

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2008

Metropolitan Called for Water Supply Alert

In May 2008, Metropolitan called upon Southern California's cities, counties, member agencies and retail water agencies to take immediate steps to reduce near-term water use. Near term actions include accelerating public messaging, implementing local drought ordinances, and developing additional local water supplies. Metropolitan's call for extraordinary conservation is consistent with its Water Surplus and Drought Management (WSDM) Plan.

WSDM is a guide Metropolitan uses for water supply actions under both wet and dry conditions for achieving reliability. The following set of "conditions" helps communicate the serious water supply situation and the need for stronger water conservation practices:

Immediate Actions

To promote and encourage conservation, Metropolitan and member agencies are expanding their media outlets and outreach campaign. Potential activities include: providing lawn watering information to nightly news weather reports; providing water supply status information to elected officials and other stakeholders at regular intervals; expanding outreach efforts to affected industries and stakeholder groups; and assisting member agencies and retail agencies with messaging efforts to local communities.

Water Supply Conditions

The following is a summary of water supply conditions for the State of California and the Metropolitan service area.

Precipitation Conditions as of June 30, 2008

*     DWR Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation Index
**   DWR Bulletin 120 – June 30, 2008
*** USBR Snowpack Report

Key Storage Conditions as of July 9, 2008

* Department of Water Resources, California Data Exchange Center
** United States Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado River Operations Schedule
*** Metropolitan Water District, Reservoir Water Storage in California (PDF file)

Summary of Hydrologic Conditions in California

The Water Year 2008, Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation Index seasonal total of 34.8 inches is now less than last year's seasonal total of 36.0 inches at this time. March and April 2008 were each the sixth driest of those months on record. For the 8-Stations, the Water Year 2008 combined March through June total precipitation is only 3.4 inches, the driest on record (since 1921). The Water Year 2008, 8-Station Index, October through June total of 34.8 inches is the 18th driest year out of 88 years of record. The 2-year combined total precipitation for Water Years 2007 (37.2 inches) and 2008 is 72.0 inches, the 9th driest 2-year period on record.

Statewide hydrologic conditions as of June 1, 2008 were as follows: precipitation at 80 percent of average to date; runoff at 60 percent of average to date; and reservoir storage at 80 percent of average for the date.

As of June 10, 2008, the projected median April-July runoff for the water supply basins ranged from 78% (Kings River) to 47% (Tule River).

The latest National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) long-range weather outlook for June 2008 issued June 30, 2008, is forecasting average precipitation for all of California.

Metropolitan Water Surplus and Drought Management (WSDM) Plan Update

Current 2008 projections (as of June 18, 2008) show that Metropolitan will have a need for over 742 TAF of supplies from WSDM Actions to meet firm, non-interruptible demands. This is based on the following assumptions:

• Range of Demands and Obligations – 2.03 to 2.37 MAF,
  • Current Trend Demands and Obligations are 2.21 MAF
  • The range of projected actual water sales is 2.03 to 2.37 MAF
    
• Colorado River Aqueduct Core Supplies - ≈ 871 TAF
  • Basic Apportionment (550,000 AF)
  • IID conservation program (85,000 AF)
  • IID/SDCWA Transfer (50,000 AF)
  • PVID Land Management Program (82,000 AF)
  • Additional PVID Fallowing (20,000 AF)
    
• State Water Project Supplies - ≈ 738 TAF
  • The SWP allocation remains at 35%
    
• Replenishment Deliveries Cuts of 100%
• IAWP delivery Cuts of 30%

At the beginning of CY 2008, Metropolitan had approximately 1.75 MAF of storage in its WSDM resource portfolio to manage base supplies and demands. Currently, the WSDM supplies and management actions available for CY 2008 are approximately 734 TAF. Based on current trend demands, there is a need for approximately 742 TAF to meet base demands. These demands are projected to be met through transfers/exchanges, surface storage, groundwater storage, and Central Valley Banking program. The table below shows the current estimate of the WSDM actions that will be taken to balance the currently allocated SWP and CRA base supplies and demand:

The details of each action are explained below:

• Spot Market Water Transfers
  • In April, the Metropolitan Board approved the purchase of up to 54,000 acre-feet of north of Delta agricultural supplies – after accounting for Delta conveyance losses of 20 percent – at approximately $250/acre-foot, not including energy costs to deliver the water to Metropolitan's service area
    
• Maximizing Groundwater Production
  • Local Groundwater production is expected to be roughly 70 TAF in 2008
    
• Withdrawals from Surface Storage and Dry-Year Groundwater Programs
  • Withdrawals from the Central Valley (Semitropic, Arvin-Edison and Kern Delta) and southern California (Mojave and San Bernardino ) groundwater storage programs were approximately 110 TAF in the first 3 months of 2008
  • Additionally, 25 TAF from the 1992 Central Arizona groundwater storage program
  • Metropolitan has access to over 400 TAF of surface storage from DVL, Castaic Lake and Lake Perris in CY 2008
    
• Extraordinary Conservation Measures
  • Staff presented its proposed extraordinary conservation measures at Metropolitan's May Board meeting.

Water Supply Outlook for May 2008

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